A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
