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"I will be sitting in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, noting that if the discussion proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into his official residence for a follow-up conversation in the coming year.

For a PM, there's never truly break for leaders. Just an hour before we sat down, Sir Keir had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to work out what on earth had transpired in Venezuela, where his close ally, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our lengthy talk, which was much longer than typical, had ended, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

With the new year begins, Starmer appears to have had a kind of a reboot. Maybe even just a bit of relaxation with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

That certainly appeared to have left him in a more positive mood than at the sluggish conclusion of 2025, a dreadful political year for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters being unrealistic if they reckon his political fate are poised to turn around?

Internal Doubts

The harsh reality for the PM is that a significant number of his party members are convinced he's not very good at his job. Several of them would rather take a risk and oust him this year.

But Sir Keir was rejecting the idea when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "assessed at the general election", maintaining nobody would strip his term from him – even if the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to change leader.

"We are in the struggle of our generation and I aim to be at the forefront," he declared.

The Spring Test

The challenge for the PM is that he will be judged far sooner than then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to argue, maybe excessively, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

True – in part. But although he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should a his MPs challenged him for the job, if those elections be catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He attempted to account for his unpopularity by saying the voters was naturally impatient for things to change. He sought to assure the interviewer, and the public, that 2026 would be a change.

The economy would strengthen notwithstanding rising unemployment, he argued, when policies the government implemented during their initial rocky year began to show results.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, although he wouldn't set a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the proviso that it was not a foregone conclusion, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He stated for the first occasion that Western partners were now discussing how to integrate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His big point is that this year the country will "reach a turning point".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have spoken with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – calmer, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of encountering demands from various quarters for a more decisive strategy, with increased political direction, more dynamism, more speed and more urgency, his points were repeated ones.

Given that he is in this much political peril, does he need a different script?

No government, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, gets everything its own way.

Sir Keir's problems are not just because government is hard, but because he and his team have made mistakes, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "procedures" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is inviting clear political dangers as the year progresses. His alliance with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the thought he would be content with these events seems implausible.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but the public "just lack the full picture at the moment".

Some demanded condemn it before we spoke. And the government is expected to face increased demands to give an explicit view in Parliament in the next few days.

And there has consistently been growing pressure in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the results of Brexit.

Sir Keir rejects he's heading in that direction, but his new firmer commitment to move closer with the EU's single market – the vast economic European market – will probably trigger howls that he is breaking his vow never to try to overturn the results that flowed from Brexit.

A decision to integrate into more of the single market will satisfy many on his side of the party, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to